By Mark Thatcher, CRPC®
August 2018
If you’ve been investing for any length of time, you know that the economy goes through regular cycles, and the first half of 2018 definitely brought its fair share of highs and lows, market volatility, trade uncertainty, and record unemployment numbers. While this is normal market behavior, it can be alarming if you are in the Second Growth phase of your life and desire to protect what you have and harvest the fruits of your labor. So let’s take a birds-eye-view of the economy and examine what it means for your personal finances.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, remains above average, with June increasing to 99.3 points as compared to an average of 86.33 points since 1952.[1] The Consumer Confidence Survey found that consumers’ assessment of current conditions has reached a 17-year high. They also found increases in consumer confidence from April to May in every category, including people’s present situation and expectations.[2]
Business confidence is also up, in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, according to the national Institute for Supply Management.[3]
Following the calm upward trajectory of 2017, stocks made impressive gains in January, only to shake investors awake in the following months. February was the most volatile month we have seen since 1996.[4] In fact, just the first quarter of this year saw five weeks that posted bigger declines than the worst week of 2017 and four weeks with greater increases than any week in 2017.[5]
Though things seem shaky compared to 2017, it’s important to note that the volatility that we are experiencing is not an anomaly, but rather within normal range. By the end of May, 2018 would have ranked as the 12th most volatile year out of the last half-century.[6]
Even with the renewal of volatility, stocks continue to trend higher. The S&P 500 is up 3.94% so far this year.[7] Small companies, which are less dependant on international trade, have fared particularly well recently. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller companies, is up 9.56% so far this year.[8]
As mentioned above, international trade has moved front and center on the economic stage. Early in the year, the current administration decided to impose a 25% tax on steel imports and a 10% tax on aluminum imports.[9] While China responded with countermeasures, US allies were originally exempt. However, in May, the exemptions expired. Some countries, such as South Korea, Argentina, Australia, and Brazil, have negotiated quotas, or volume limits, to replace the tariffs. The European Union and Mexico immediately stated that they would impose countermeasures or tariffs of their own.[10]
June’s G7 meeting ended on a sour note as the US made clear their dissatisfaction with current trade agreements. The US hopes to renegotiate trade deals to make them more favorable, but whether the move will work or spiral into an economically damaging trade war remains to be seen.[11]
Another thing that continues to go down is unemployment, which dropped to 3.8% in May (the lowest level since April 2000)[12]. Black and Latino unemployment, in particular, has reached record lows.[13] Initial jobless claims have hit their lowest levels in the last 50 years.[14] Employers also surpassed expectations in May by creating an additional 223,000 jobs.
Things are especially looking up for those that earn the least. Recent reports show that those earning the lowest wages are the ones who are seeing the highest percentage of increases in earnings.[15]
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018. While that is lower than we saw in 2017, it still exceeded expectations. Cheaper commodity prices and reduced corporate taxes helped to drive the growth.[16]
First quarter spending was down, at its lowest rate in 5 years. However, with a still-tightening labor market and the large fiscal stimulus, analysts do not expect low spending to be a pervasive problem.[17] In fact, spending has already begun to pick up as we draw closer to summer.[18]
The Federal Reserve has raised rates twice so far this year to 1.75%-2% and is anticipating two more rate hikes before we reach 2019. The new Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, stated in June that the economy has strengthened significantly since 2008. He believes it is approaching a “normal” level where it will not need the Fed to be as active in encouraging economic activity. Overall, he is optimistic, believing the economic outlook for the US is good with a strong economy, strong labor market, and strong growth.[19]
While things are looking up as a whole, it’s important to make sure your own personal financials are following suit. At Cypress Wealth Services, we analyze your financial position to create a customized, detailed blueprint of what you need to do to meet your goals. We accomplish this by taking a specialized approach to investment philosophy, legacy planning, risk control, and liability management.
If it’s been awhile since you’ve evaluated your financial situation and want to make sure your portfolio is positioned to reap the full benefits of our country’s growth, or if you simply have questions about the state of the economy, contact one of our offices today.
Cypress Wealth Services, an independent RIA firm providing financial planning and investment management to high net worth individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. CWS is comprised of professionals with diverse backgrounds and extensive experience and qualifications. CWS is uniquely qualified to serve a broad range of client needs. Their experience and expertise act as a foundation for their client service process, The Second Growth, which focuses on efficiently protecting, growing, and transferring to their loved ones the wealth and legacy a person has already built. With offices in Palm Desert and Anchorage, the firm serves clients across the country. Learn more by visiting www.CypressWS.com.
